Presidential Debate: Why President Obama Beat Mitt Romney? The Twitter Political Index

2014-09-20 14:02:11
Presidential Debate: Why President Obama Beat Mitt Romney? The Twitter Political Index
Saturday, September 20, 2014, 2:02:11 PM

Because she was traveling, famed soccer star Hope Solo asked via Twitter for a Presidential Debate update. Her tweet:

The response from this blogger was that President Obama kicked Mitt Romney’s ass. That calls for some explanation, which is provided here in the latest Zennie62 video…

But let’s add to that.

Given that so many polls take a sample size so small you can’t really know what the electorate’s really thinking, it’s better to use Social Media as a gauge than a standard poll. The other problem with polls is they’re generally used by media to push an agenda. Although, I have to say the poll by Gallup that has Romney up 50 percent to 46 percent is something to note, as President Obama seems to be losing support from white voters, particularly in the South, while holding on to the youth vote.

President Obama

President Obama

But that was because of the Denver debate. The Hofstra Debate of last night should produce a vastly different result next week.

That said, racism seems to be creeping into this election, because only white adults over 30, and no other group, seem to be lessening in their support for Obama over four years ago, and even with Romney’s total lack of specifics. But then Gallup polled just over 3,000 people. To get a really meaningful polling size, Gallup would have to have contacted about 5 million people.

Since there were over 7 million Twitter tweets about last nights’ debate, an many more millions about Obama and Romney, and since Twitter’s not just for young people anymore, it’s fair to say Twitter’s a better read of the electorate than the current method of polling.

In an effort to get a better handle on what the electorate reflects on Twitter, the San Francisco-based micro-blogging / Social Media firm created The Twitter Political Index. The Twitter Political Index tracks the positive and negative tweets about President Obama and Mitt Romney, and has done so since May.

As of this writings, President Obama leads Mitt Romney 35 to 29, with Obama up nine points versus Romney’s 8 points. One glaring difference between Obama and Romney is in the number of Twitter Followers: the President has over 10 million; Romney sits at 1.4 million. But that doesn’t impact the Index.

Twitter Political Index’ Interesting Patterns

What the Twitter Political Index shows is the sensitivity of the electorate to what each Presidential Candidate does and how its reflected in the media. For example, On the day of the first Presidential Debate, October 3rd, Romney was ahead of Obama by a hair, 37 to 36, but then support for Mitt slacked off, and then as we approached October 13th, he closed the gap with Obama, then took the lead 24 to 20. But by the 15th, Obama regained the lead, and then on the 16th, the day of Presidential Debate 2, the President zoomed ahead of Mitt and to where he is today.

Going back to the Democratic National Convention, when Obama erased what was a close race and zoomed ahead of Mitt 52 to 9 by September 6th, Romney’s numbers had improved before the Denver debate, and Obama’s perceived poor performance closed the gap.

But now, whatever lead Romney enjoyed and whatever close numbers existed were erased during the second Presidential Debate.

The Twitter Political Index also shows, again, how sensitive the electorate is to media. For example, the President’s highest overall lead versus Mitt Romney was on August 4th – his, and my, birthday. It also shows that, as we’ve gotten closer to election day, the swings between either candidate have been larger and longer over time. That started in mid July. What’s interesting is that when Obama has a large lead, it’s really large versus Romney’s leads. I think part of that may be due to the large numbers of people who follow Obama, and react positively to him on Twitter, and then add that to those who are undecided and their positive reaction to the President.

What this shows is that President Obama’s base of support is more solid than that for Mitt Romney. It’s almost as if the election is Obama’s to lose, and Romney exists as a gauge of how people feel about President Obama, and not how they feel about Mitt Romney.

Where will the Index go? Well, judging by the emails and comments about Romney’s “Binders full of women” comment, the future doesn’t look bright for him. Obama’s lead gap should increase over the next three days.

Stay tuned.

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About the Author

Zennie Abraham is the founder of Zennie62Media which consists of http://www.zennie62blog.com and a multimedia blog news aggregator and video network, and 78-blog network, with social media and content development services and consulting. Zennie is a pioneer video blogger, YouTube Partner, social media practitioner, game developer, and pundit. Note: news aggregator content does not reflect the personal views of Mr. Abraham. Visit http://www.youtube.com/user/zennie62 and http://www.tout.com/u/zennie62 - follow on Twitter @zennie62